Festival Season Investment Strategy: The 5 Swiss Watches That Will Appreciate During Diwali Season
6 min read
The 2025 watch market is operating under fundamentally different mechanics than previous years. Patek Philippe is up +2.8% year-to-date, while most brands are still depreciating, and a 39% U.S. tariff on Swiss watches has forced brands to implement unprecedented price increases. Indian buyers purchasing during Diwali 2025 have a unique arbitrage opportunity; retail prices are spiking globally, but secondary market values haven't fully adjusted yet.
The 2025 Market Reality
The WatchCharts Overall Market Index fell 0.1% in August 2025, marking continued volatility. But aggregate numbers obscure what's actually happening: five brands gained ground year-to-date—Patek Philippe (+2.8%), Rolex (+1.6%), Grand Seiko (+1.6%), Omega (+0.9%), and Cartier (+0.3%). Blancpain fell 12.6%, Piaget dropped 12.5%, and Jaeger-LeCoultre declined 8.5% in 2025. Even within winning brands, divergence is extreme. Patek Philippe’s sports collections are rallying, while dress watches from Grand Complications (-6.1%) and Calatrava (-5.3%) are bleeding value.
Here are five watches positioned to appreciate based on current September 2025 data.
1. Patek Philippe Nautilus 5712/1A: The Scarcity Play
Current secondary market price: $155,000-170,000
Last known retail price (discontinued): ~$68,000
2025 appreciation: +10.4% over the past six months
The steel Nautilus with moon phase and power reserve is the standout performer of 2025. It was discontinued earlier this year, and supply on the secondary market has been declining steadily. Meanwhile, Patek Philippe has increased retail prices by 6.9% in May 2025 and then implemented a shocking 15% price hike on September 15, 2025, directly responding to the 39% U.S. tariff on Swiss watches.
The math is straightforward: the 5712/1A climbed 10.4% while demand fundamentals show Patek sports models selling faster in 2025 than in 2023-2024. The discontinuation plus accelerating retail inflation creates a compression effect; every month that passes widens the gap between what people paid and what buyers will pay.
For Diwali buyers: This is the single highest-confidence appreciation bet in Swiss watches right now. The window for pre-owned Patek Philippe watches at rational prices is narrowing, and U.S. tariffs will eventually drive secondary prices higher globally
Risk factor: Patek prices are still down approximately 10% over the past two years from the market peak. If global luxury spending contracts severely, even the 5712/1A could stall.
Source: https://watchcharts.com/watches/indexes
2. Patek Philippe Aquanaut 5167/1A: The Volume Leader
Current secondary market price: $72,000-80,000
Retail price (pre-September hike): $25,955, which jumped to $29,875 in May 2025
2025 appreciation: +7.8% over six months; Aquanaut collection up +5.0% year-to-date.
The base Aquanaut in steel is experiencing something rare: supply is tightening for core references like the 5167A, 5164A, 5167R, and 5164R, even as newer models from 2023 enter the secondary market in higher volumes. This means established references are becoming genuinely scarcer. Patek Philippe raised U.S. prices by 15% on September 15, 2025, the third price increase in 2025 alone. That retail now sits around $34,000 after adjustments, while secondary market values haven't caught up. The lag creates opportunity.
For Diwali context: The 5167/1A is the most liquid Patek Philippe reference after the Nautilus. You can sell it in any major city within 72 hours. That liquidity matters when appreciation is your goal; you want the ability to exit positions efficiently.
Source: https://watchcharts.com/
3. Rolex Cosmograph Daytona (White Dial): The Stabilizing Contrarian
Current secondary market price: $30,000-32,000
Retail price: Approximately $15,000 (rose from $8,150 to $8,500 for comparable DateJust models in May 2025 during Rolex's second price increase of the year)
2025 trend: -0.9% in August 2025, first Rolex monthly decline since February
The Daytona 116500LN declined slightly in August, but context matters. Rolex gained +1.6% year-to-date in 2025, making it one of only five appreciating brands. The August dip was driven by losses in the Daytona (-0.9%) and DateJust (-0.7%) specifically, while other collections held firm.
This is market normalization, not collapse. The 116500LN now trades at approximately 2x retail, down from 3x+ in 2021-2022. Rolex implemented its second price increase of 2025 in May, raising prices 3-4% across most models to offset the 10% Swiss import tariff.
The thesis: Rolex produces roughly 1 million watches annually with unmatched global distribution. The Daytona remains the single most liquid luxury watch in existence. Current pricing represents the first rational entry point since pandemic mania subsided. Rolex is increasing production capacity with new factories and tuition-free watchmaking schools, stabilizing supply for long-term market trust
For Diwali buyers with 3-5 year horizons: Buy the temporary weakness.
Source : https://watchcharts.com/market/forecast
4. Cartier Tank Must (Steel): The Quiet Outperformer
Current secondary market price: $3,800-4,800
Retail price: ~$2,900-3,200 (depending on strap configuration)
2025 performance: Cartier up +0.3% year-to-date; Tank collection specifically gained +1.8% in August 2025 alone.
Cartier is one of 2025's most underestimated stories. It's one of only five brands showing year-to-date gains, with +0.5% growth in August driven partly by Tank appreciation. The Tank's rectangular case and Roman numerals have Art Deco geometry that complements traditional Indian attire better than round sports watches; aesthetic compatibility matters for pieces you'll actually wear during festive occasions.
The Tank Must in steel offers entry-level Cartier pricing with legitimate secondary market traction. Discontinued vintage Tank Louis and Tank Américaine references from the 1990s-2000s are appreciating steadily, creating a halo effect that lifts current-production models.
For Diwali purchases: The Tank is what you buy when you want something beautiful and pragmatic. It won't 3x in value, but it also won't crater 40% like mid-tier sports watches have.
Risk: Cartier produces high volumes. Not every Tank appreciates. Focus on steel models or limited editions; avoid mass-produced quartz variants.
Source : https://about.chrono24.com/en/press/luxury-watches-prices-remain-stable-in-2024
5. Omega Speedmaster Professional "Moonwatch": The Stability Anchor
Reference: 310.30.42.50.01.001
Current secondary market price: $5,600-6,200
Retail price: ~$6,800
2025 performance: Omega up +0.9% year-to-date; +0.7% in August 2025
The Moonwatch is the only watch on this list trading below retail, which makes it the safest depreciation hedge available. Omega is one of five brands showing positive 2025 performance, driven largely by mid-tier brands like TAG Heuer (+1.8%) and Grand Seiko (+0.9%) outperforming luxury giants
The Moonwatch's advantage is non-correlation with hype cycles. It doesn't spike dramatically, but it also doesn't crash. Buy one grey market at $5,800, and you'll recover 85-95% of the cost in five years. That's better than most watches under ₹10 lakh and dramatically better than fashion watches or microbrands.
For Diwali context: If your budget is ₹5-6 lakh and you want something that won't punish you financially, the Moonwatch is the answer. It's also the only manually-wound chronograph with genuine space flight heritage under $7,000.
Source : https://12and60.com/chrono24-luxury-watches-report-2024-key-trends-and-market-insights/
The honest assessment: Patek Philippe sports models are the only high-confidence appreciation plays right now, driven by actual scarcity and accelerating demand. Everything else requires longer time horizons and tolerance for volatility. But all five watches listed have measurable resistance to the broader market decline that's hammering dress watches and mid-tier brands.
Buy during Diwali if you find rational pricing. Ignore FOMO. And remember: temporary market dips are rare entry points into assets that, over the long run, correct upward when supply is genuinely constrained.
